Steel prices may be in the existing situation on the shaking down the run 2022-12-19
Raw Material News
1. Steel billet
On the 9th, Tangshan billet was stable at 3,780 yuan/ton. Market, by the downstream steel enterprises stage replenishment influence, today billet direct hair part of the transaction performance is still okay. Black system futures snail plate hold red shock adjustment, traders mentality show general, before noon storage spot part of the report 3860 yuan including tax. In terms of raw materials, on Friday the iron ore index rose 2.6 U.S. dollars; Tangshan quasi-class wet quenched coke 2720 yuan / ton, accepting tax to the plant price; cost-end prices continue to strengthen, today’s accounting billet profit loss of 267-280 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream finished products, mainstream prices were steadily raised by 20 yuan, with overall transaction performance weak. At present, some downstream steel mills are affected by the epidemic and profit inversions to go on holiday one after another, the demand release is insufficient, winter reserve stock market has not yet appeared, manufacturers are still more cautious wait-and-see mentality, is expected tomorrow Tangshan steel billet price stability in finishing.
2. Iron ore inventory
Friday night, the Development and Reform Commission issued a paper iron ore prices rise too quickly will strengthen supervision, the plate fell in response, the main contract price once down to 815.5 yuan / ton of nearly two weeks low, then the plate has risen, closing down at 2.49%. Recent iron ore trend is stronger, in the prevention of epidemic policy, macro environment and other improvements, the market is generally bullish on the future trend of iron ore, and near the Spring Festival holiday steel mills to replenish the behavior of iron ore prices more and more firm, its futures price from the former low level has increased by more than 40%. With the continuous rise in prices, last Friday, the Development and Reform Commission Price Division held a meeting to analyze and analyze the iron ore market and price situation, listen to industry experts and some market institutions, research to strengthen the supervision of iron ore prices. In the face of possible policy regulation, the plate appears worried sentiment, short-term mining prices or face adjustment needs.
Finished goods dynamics
The company’s main business is to provide a wide range of products and services to the market. Steel enterprises in various regions of the country winter storage policy has been introduced, steel enterprises strong will to support prices. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream terminal demand gradually stagnated, a small amount of on-demand procurement, most traders will also be on holiday this week, the market gradually into a semi-vacation state, price increases and decreases in performance weak. Considering that the cost support still exists, it is expected that the market price is stable in the finishing. The main influencing factors are as follows: 1, demand is gradually shrinking; 2, the market is entering the closing stage 3, the cost side support still exists.
The 9 day type price is stable in the finishing. The company’s main business is to provide a wide range of products and services to the market.
The company’s main business is to provide a wide range of products and services to the market. Most traders did not consider winter storage, wait and see the market after the year before making operations. Tomorrow’s pipe market is expected to stabilize.
The company’s main business is to provide a wide range of products and services to the market. Considering the limited release of demand, it is expected that the adjustment will be stable.
Macro hot topics interpretation
The first set of housing loan interest rate policy dynamic adjustment mechanism, the new commodity residential sales price ring and year-on-year for three consecutive months are down, the city can phase to maintain, down or cancel the local first set of housing loan interest rate policy lower limit. The Minister of Housing and Construction, Ni Hong, also stressed in an interview recently that “city-specific and precise policies” should be applied to the purchase of the first home. The down payment ratio and the first set of interest rates should be lowered.
Interpretation: in order to promote the benign development of the property market, the state continues to introduce relevant policies to stimulate the property market, revitalize the property market will help increase the demand for the steel industry, the industry is a major benefit.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in February is 76.6%] According to the CME “Fed Watch”, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% range in February is 76.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 23.4%; the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 12.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 23.4%. 12.2%, a 68.2% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point hike and a 19.7% chance of a cumulative 75 basis point hike. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser predicts that the Fed will raise rates to just below 5.5% by May, in addition to a recession that could occur sometime later this year.
Interpretation: From the analysis of the Fed’s rate hike, the overall inflation of the US economy has peaked and the rate hike will slow down, and the steel market’s rate hike fear may ease.
The futures snail briefly commented: the futures snail 05 rushed back down, high shock, the daily K closed up and down shadow longer small negative, closed 4093, up 23 or 0.57%, the daily chart CCI indicator still running in +100 above, but the ROC indicator turned down again. The top 20 main institutions long position reduction 50,000 hands, short position reduction 44,000 hands, the overall position change on the short side; Yongan more than single position reduction strength is strong, the current Yongan in 05 hold net short single increased to 60,000 hands. Coke opened a second round of lifting 100-110 yuan / ton, but the cost side support still exists; near the Spring Festival, the downstream terminal demand gradually stalled, a small amount of on-demand procurement, the market gradually into a semi-vacation state, the price rise and fall performance is weak, the overall transaction is general. It is expected that the snail short-term oscillation operation, support 4050, pressure 4150.
The future trend
For the subsequent trend, steel prices may be in the existing situation on the shock of downward running. The coke will be lowered in the second round and the iron ore will be regulated and there will be room for price cuts. The current high cost of steel billet did not reach the expected psychological price, the market large-scale winter storage is still not carried out. In summary, steel prices or will be in the existing situation on the shock of downward running. (Source: Fubo Steel)